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A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season has the team had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.